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EASY RISK FORMULA FOR PREDICTION OF HOSPITAL MORTALITY ON COVID-19

J. Plášek, J. Dodulík, P. Gai, B. Hrstková, J. Škrha, L. Zlatohlávek, P. Danko, P. Ondráček, E. Čubová, B. Čapek, M. Kollárová, T. Fürst, J. Václavík (Ostrava, Praha, Havířov, Jílovec, Krnov, Třinec, Olomouc)

Tématický okruh: Varia

Typ: Poster - lékařský, XXXI. výroční sjezd ČKS

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, especially in hospitalized, high-risk patients. We aim to assess the risk factors for hospital mortality in non-vaccinated patients during the 2021 spring wave in the Czech Republic.
Methods: A total of 991 patients hospitalized between 1.1.2021 and 31.1.2021 with PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory infection in 2 university and 5 rural hospitals were included in this retrospective trial. After excluding patients with unknown outcomes (transfer to other facility), 790 patients entered the final analyses. The risk factors of in-hospital mortality were analyzed by logistic regression, for selected independent risk factors a receiver operating curve was constructed.
Results: Out of 790 patients included in the analysis, 282 (35.7 %) patients died in the hospital; 162/430 (37.7%) males and 120/360 (33.3%) females. There were 141 (17.8%) patients with mild, 461 (58.3%) patients with moderate and 187 (23.6%) patients with severe course of the disease based mainly on the modes of oxygenation therapy.
In a multivariate logistic regression, several models for the prediction of hospital mortality were evaluated. The best performing model contains only two predictors – age and the state of the patient based on oxygenation mode, both predictors rendered significant (p < 0.0001).
Conclusion: Both the predictors (oxygenation status/age) of hospital mortality are significant and have following implications: every 10 years of age increase the risk of hospital mortality 2.5x and every grade in the oxygenation status 20x times.