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PROHLÍŽENÍ ABSTRAKTA

EASY RISK FORMULA FOR PREDICTION OF HOSPITAL MORTALITY ON COVID-19
Tématický okruh: Varia
Typ: Poster - lékařský , Číslo v programu: 333
Plášek J. 1, Dodulík J. 1, Gai P. 2, Hrstková B. 3, Škrha J. 4, Zlatohlávek L. 4, Danko P. 5, Ondráček P. 6, Čubová E. 7, Čapek B. 8, Kollárová M. 9, Fürst T. 10, Václavík J. 11

1 Interní a kardiologická klinika, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 2 Klinika plicních nemocí a tuberkulózy, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 3 Klinika infekčního lékařství, Fakultní nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 4 III.Interní klinika, Všeobecná fakultní nemocnice, Praha, 5 Interní oddělení a Interní JIP, Nemocnice Havířov p.o, Havířov, 6 Interní oddělení a Interní JIP, Bílovecká nemocnice ,a.s., Jílovec, 7 Interní oddělení, Městská nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 8 Interní oddělení, Sdružené zdravotnické zařízení Krnov, Krnov, 9 Interní oddělení, Nemocnice Třinec, Třinec, 10 Katedra matematické analýzy a aplikované matematiky, Univerzita Palackého, Olomouc, 11 Interní a Kardiologická klinika, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava


Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, especially in hospitalized, high-risk patients. We aim to assess the risk factors for hospital mortality in non-vaccinated patients during the 2021 spring wave in the Czech Republic.
Methods: A total of 991 patients hospitalized between 1.1.2021 and 31.1.2021 with PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory infection in 2 university and 5 rural hospitals were included in this retrospective trial. After excluding patients with unknown outcomes (transfer to other facility), 790 patients entered the final analyses. The risk factors of in-hospital mortality were analyzed by logistic regression, for selected independent risk factors a receiver operating curve was constructed.
Results: Out of 790 patients included in the analysis, 282 (35.7 %) patients died in the hospital; 162/430 (37.7%) males and 120/360 (33.3%) females. There were 141 (17.8%) patients with mild, 461 (58.3%) patients with moderate and 187 (23.6%) patients with severe course of the disease based mainly on the modes of oxygenation therapy.
In a multivariate logistic regression, several models for the prediction of hospital mortality were evaluated. The best performing model contains only two predictors – age and the state of the patient based on oxygenation mode, both predictors rendered significant (p < 0.0001).
Conclusion: Both the predictors (oxygenation status/age) of hospital mortality are significant and have following implications: every 10 years of age increase the risk of hospital mortality 2.5x and every grade in the oxygenation status 20x times.